1. The US dollar loses its pre-eminence Today’s centralized global monetary and financial system – featuring a dominant US dollar – mutates into a world with multiple reserve currencies and financial powers of influence, mirroring the shift from the British pound to the US dollar as the reserve asset. As economic importance traditionally leads financial and monetary pre-eminence, the euro and renminbi are likely to gain importance alongside the US dollar and increasingly meet the world’s demand for the reserve currencies and safe assets.
2. Decreasing use of paper money
Digital money – issued privately or by central banks –
and decentralized ledgers proliferate with implications
for monetary and financial policy-making. In countries,
where changes are rapid, the growing fintech industry is
providing specialized financial services using a range of
digital innovations, including those that supply credit and
payments services to households and businesses through
online platforms. Acceptance and adoption of cryptocurrencies
will continue to spread. These developments
will bring together markets, institutions and infrastructure
in a multi-polar, complex and interconnected world, which
will challenge the conduct of monetary policy and have
implications for financial stability.
3. Traditional bank business models will be challenged
Fintech will transform traditional banks and insurance
companies, with the emergence of newly decentralized
entities providing liquidity and new financial services
in a disintermediated way. The development of new
technologies will create new asset classes that directly
match savers and borrowers and foster risk mitigation
through the commoditization of financial data but also lead
to more fragmentation and dislocations.
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